This article was published by the Barbados Nation newspaper on Monday 17th November,2008
Changes of power can be brutal. In our countries there’s no meaningful transition period. You lose the election on Monday and you could be out of the official residence by Wednesday. Your winning opponent is sworn in it seems before you’ve properly cleared out your desk.
America’s two-and-a-half month transition is understandable. With all due respect to Thompson and Arthur it’s a much bigger job than running Barbados.
Another difference is term limits. Two was all that Bush could have, so he’s been mentally prepared to go for a long time. Bush’s job is bigger and harder, but the jolt to Arthur will arguably be greater.
The long transition means that Barack Obama like his predecessors will have a chance to build his team, to get detailed, top-secret intelligence briefings on the country’s gravest security threats and to formulate his policies.
From a Caribbean point of view, three things need to happen.
The first is that Caribbean leaders need to get in his face. Obama, half-Kenyan who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, is an internationalist by reflex, and in theory should be receptive to engagement. I haven’t seen any signs that the Caribbean is part of his thinking.
It could, if as is widely being speculated, he makes Hillary Clinton his secretary of state. The Caribbean’s friends on Capitol Hill, representatives Charles Rangel, Yvette Clarke and Gregory Meeks, were strong Clinton supporters during the Democratic nomination process and not close to Obama.
They would have Hillary’s ear. Clarke has been pushing the argument that the Caribbean islands are an extension of the homeland, and that they should be part of Homeland Security reckoning. America is safer, she argues, if more is done to close the drug shipment corridors, and to bring more stability to Haiti.
An unstable Haiti means more illegal immigration, a greater chance of becoming a narco-facilitating state and makes for a more porous southern frontier.
The second thing that needs to be done is to get the Caribbean on America’s development radar. The problem with the Caribbean is that it’s not poor or underdeveloped enough--- Africa is considered more deserving of American and other international aid; rightly so according to the usual measurements like per-capita income.
I don’t hear too much talk from the Caribbean these days of a “vulnerability index”, as I did back at the Barbados Small Island Developing Countries Summit (SIDS) in 1994. Yes, we’re rich relative to Sub-Saharan Africa, regional policy makers had argued, but that prosperity could be wiped out in an instant by a natural disaster like an Exxon Valdez (oil spill) or a hurricane.
Ivan in Grenada is a prime example. My experience of asking hard questions after hurricanes is that the normal reflex is to underplay the scale of damage to protect the tourism industry. It is a reflex that should be resisted, not just with disasters, but the credit crisis that is biting hard in some countries.
Obama is busy bailing out Wall Street and Detroit and money is tight but again, the argument could be made that a secure Caribbean (financially and otherwise) means a secure America.
Can Caribbean leaders get their face-time? Obama is the most globally popular US incumbent in living memory. Everyone wants a sprinkling of the O-stardust. They’ll have their work cut out.
Third, Obama will have to close the Guantanamo detention centre quickly to avoid early disappointment in his presidency by supporters. A Harvard trained former law professor, he has been a consistent critic of Guantanamo, detention without trial, and approved torture methods like waterboarding.
Those on the right argue that once Obama sees the intelligence, he’ll realise that some of the men being held at Guantanamo are very dangerous terrorists.
Others on left counter that if you know they’re so bad, you shouldn’t have a problem convicting them in civilian courts.
Obama will have to upset one of them. The greater harm to his reputation would be upsetting his supporters who expect him to end a practice they think has damaged America’s legal and diplomatic standing in the world.
Finally a word on George W Bush. His national and international approval rating is low, but in some countries in Africa, Bush is credited with doing a great job in fight against AIDS. I’m one of those (in the minority it seems) who don’t buy the notion that he’s unintelligent.
He’s sharp (I’ve heard at first hand from people who have met him) with an easy charm, if dismissive towards those who don’t share his point of view and grammatically muddled. By many accounts he possesses the utter certainty of the privileged, elite school educated--- a certainty unencumbered by actual facts.
Bush’s presidency is mostly being judged a failure by the commentariat. I’m going to leave his policies for others to assess. I think that Bush, MBA Harvard, failed in management. He has damaged two main Republican claims. Iraq undermined the first that they’re the party of sound management, and the financial crisis and national debt the second--- that they’re the party of fiscal prudence.